Sports Betting Tips - If Bets and Reverse Teasers
"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those instead of parlays. Some of you may not learn how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, combined with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. Without a doubt Team A and when it wins then you place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the first team, and when it wins you bet double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, instead of betting double on the second team, you bet an equal amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you want to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can even be made on two games kicking off concurrently. The bookmaker will wait until the first game has ended. If the first game wins, he'll put the same amount on the second game though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the next bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the second game have not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you should have action on the next game. For that reason, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap with time, however, the only way to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the second game bet is not an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at differing times, most books won't allow you to complete the second game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You may make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the next team. No matter whether the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 once you lose on the initial team. If the first team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" would be $110, and the utmost win will be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. In the event that you split however the loser is the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to avoid the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting hitclub on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This sort of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you would like to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Instead of losing $110 when the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 when the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It works out in this manner. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the first combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second mix of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the next combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller lack of $60 rather than $110 once the first team loses without reduction in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it has the advantage of making the risk more predictable, and preventing the worry as to which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations offer you a headache, skip them and simply write down the rules. I'll summarize the rules in an easy to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win a lot more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting on one shouldn't be made dependent on whether or not you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the point that he is not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that next time someone lets you know that the best way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by successful with a confident expectation in mere two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of which you have no other choice is if you are the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux which means you left it in the car, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap with time, you pull out your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a wonderful substitute for the parlay when you are winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the fact that we make the second bet only IF one of many propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig regardless of how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when among our combinations comes in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over will come in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will review the comparatively low total, and when the favorite does not cover the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will under the total. As we have already seen, when you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The specific possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the proven fact that they're co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet than the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only have to win one out from the two. Each one of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we are in need of is really a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point from a win. That a BC cover can lead to an over 72% of that time period is not an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
As compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a complete increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."
