Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They'll tout win rates similar to one of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, you will see that they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On many of these sites you may have the privilege of working with some type of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the truth that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with Hi88 casino is actually a fairly raised percentage. Lots of table games and slots offer a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house has to offer. Additionally, there are steps which might be taken to decrease the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome over time.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more consistent with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome over time. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games which are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is clearly pleased to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go back home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. It is because most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Since they don't believe they are able to make any real cash by placing $25-50 on several games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the finish of the growing season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping how big is their bets low they're not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most of all, it really is my experience that most bettors do not place just one parlay per week. In football this implies a minimum of 34 parlays are placed through the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous amount of wagers to put with such a high house edge. For instance, should you be placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. Because the number of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had litigant who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will help you over time. First of all, the very best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a glance at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you are going to make such an investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always make it 6 or even 10. The difference between your house edge to include 1 or 2 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is approximately 10 points less than all three of these bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your contact with a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.