Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people with parlays. They will tout win rates similar to many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of 789bet Casino , so as to they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some sort of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made up of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the fact that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The home edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. A lot of table games and slots provide a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing some dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house has to offer. There are also steps which might be taken to reduce the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the long term.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet includes a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more consistent with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games that are frequently played in the casino are slots that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the house minimum. It is because most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they can make any real cash by placing $25-50 on several games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a significant loss by the finish of the season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping how big is their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it really is my experience that most bettors do not place just one single parlay weekly. In football this means a minimum of 34 parlays are put during the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with such a high house edge. For example, when you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had a client who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you take into account I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help you over time. First of all, the best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a look at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make such an investment here are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 and even 10. The difference between the house edge to add one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are going to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is approximately 10 points lower than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your contact with a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.