Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people with parlays. They will tout win rates much like many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, so as to they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may have the privilege of working with some type of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that you will find nearly all these losers are made of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the truth that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The home edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly high percentage. A great deal of table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a pair of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house has to offer. Additionally, there are steps that can be taken to reduce the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome over time.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more consistent with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the end. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is clearly happy to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go back home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the biggest amount of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the home minimum. The reason being most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on a few games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the finish of the growing season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping how big is their bets low they are not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most of all, it is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one parlay per week. In football this implies at the least 34 parlays are put through the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet this is still a dangerous amount of wagers to place with this type of high house edge. For example, for anyone who is placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. Because bk8 of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had litigant who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you consider I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will help you in the long run. First of all, the very best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is a lot more than twice as much. If you take a glance at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make such an investment here are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 or even 10. The difference between the house edge to add 1 or 2 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are likely to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points less than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.