How exactly to Bet Parlays in Sports
The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry an increased house edge than straight bets, therefore you give the book a more impressive advantage over you once you play them. That, alone, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, but they aren't. They believe they can win more with parlays, however they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger probability of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not a single bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Just do it, make a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case of a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon if the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting that doesn't need to be there. The skilled handicapper is always seeking to make smart investments. He tries to eliminate the effect of luck to the best extent possible to make his results as predictable as possible.
Much like every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the initial half with the game. The player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the first half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Every time the player won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on another parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he'd lose $200.
At first glance, this were a great opportunity for the book. The normal coin-flip odds of winning one parlay out of your two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half the time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after 6 months, and the book started to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that the two halves of every parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the initial half, the bettor was almost never in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. At the end of the first half, the score was 31-21, for a total of 52 first-half points. The initial half of one of the parlays, the "over" in the initial half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the overall game weren't 50-50 but much better than 99% and only the "over." The player only needed to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to use this, be aware that most off-shore books are much too smart to allow you to parlay first half to game. If they do let you do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will be taken to the cleaners.
There are, however, https://fb88group.net/ -dependent parlays that can still be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the side and total in exactly the same game.
Any game in which the total is less than double the spread can provide you an advantage in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how exactly to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and boost your win with very little increase in risk. This type of bet, however, required that you have an impression on the side or the full total. Parlaying is another solution to increase your potential win on these games, or even to develop a potential win in case you have no opinion.
You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a total of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you were to think that Virginia will cover the 25 points, they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the overall game will go over the full total. The much more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia covers 25 points, the more likely it becomes that the overall game will go over 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will go over. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you believe that Duke will never be shut out, in that case your possibility of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are greater than the standard 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is not as likely that Virginia covers the 25 points. Consequently, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.
When you have no opinion on the game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total is to the spread privately, the better win-rate will undoubtedly be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but you will find a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the medial side to the full total in exactly the same game, because an increasing number of are realizing these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets so you might consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.